(Washington Post) Russia’s devastating glide bombs keep falling on its own territory - The powerful glide-bombs that Russia has used to such great effect to pound Ukrainian cities into rubble have also been falling on its own territory, an internal Russian document has revealed. At least 38 of the bombs, which have been credited with helping drive Russia’s recent territorial advances, crashed into the Belgorod region on the border with Ukraine between April 2023 and April 2024, according to the document obtained by The Washington Post, though most did not detonate.
- According to the document, at least four bombs fell on the city of Belgorod itself, a regional hub with a population of about 400,000 people. An additional seven were found in the surrounding suburbs. The most, 11, fell in the Graivoron border region where some could not be recovered because of the “difficult operational situation.”
- The document, originally intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence and passed on to The Post, includes a spreadsheet of incidents citing emergency decrees on bomb cleanup and evacuation and appears to be a product of the Belgorod city emergency department. Astra, an independent Russian media outlet, verified that many of the incidents in the document matched those it had collected from local governments and reports in local news media. People mentioned as witnesses have been confirmed as residents.
- Based on statements from the Ukrainians about the numbers of bombs launched and the tallies from Astra about misfires, the CIT (Conflict Intelligence Team, a Russian research group specializing in open-source investigations) estimated a failure rate of 4 to 6 percent.
(Forbes) Russia’s Most Dangerous Jets Are Parked In The Open A Hundred Miles From Ukraine. But Kyiv Needs Washington’s Permission To Strike Them. - Voronezh Malshevo air base, in southern Russia 100 miles from the border with Ukraine, might be the most important—and most vulnerable—target in Russia. Dozens of Sukhoi Su-34s—possibly representing around half of Russia’s active fleet of the supersonic, twin-engine fighter-bombers—routinely park out out in the open on the tarmac of the recently renovated base.
- But the administration of Pres. Joe Biden hasn’t yet given the Ukrainian government permission to aim the ATACMS at Voronezh Malshevo. And so, for now, the Su-34s at Voronezh Malshevo bomb with near impunity—lobbing a significant percentage of the roughly 100 glide bombs the Russians drop on Ukrainian positions and cities every day, killing soldiers and civilians alike.
- To be clear, Ukrainian forces have other ways of stopping the glide bombers. So far, however, they’re not working on the planes from Voronezh Malshevo.
- One option is to shoot down the bombers before they release their munitions. The problem is that the Ukrainian air force doesn’t have enough of its best U.S.-made Patriot air-defense batteries to protect major cities—to say nothing of extending that protection close enough to the border to intercept the 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment’s Sukhois.
- Likewise, it would be risky for the Ukrainian air force to deploy its future fleet of ex-European F-16 fighters against the glide bombers. “The glide-bomb sorties will be very challenging to intercept regularly,” analyst Justin Bronk wrote in a new study for the Royal United Services Institute in London. The main problem is Russia’s ground-based air defenses, which make it extremely dangerous for Ukrainian warplanes to fly at high altitude practically anywhere in Ukraine—but especially within a hundred miles or so of the front line, well within reach of Russia’s S-400 surface-to-air missile batteries.
- Ukraine could always aim long-range strike drones at Voronezh Malshevo. Recent drone strikes on two other Su-34 bases—Kuschevka and Morozovsk, both in Russia around a hundred miles from the eastern front line—have apparently damaged or destroyed several Sukhois. For some reason, Voronezh Malshevo hasn’t come under heavy bombardment from drones. It’s possible the same dense Russian air defenses that imperil the F-16s also prevent drones from reaching the Sukhoi base.
(Kyiv Indipendent) Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will make a surprise visit to Kyiv on July 2, three sources told the Guardian on July 1. - Orban is seen as Moscow’s main ally in the EU. Hungary has repeatedly blocked aid for Ukraine, and spoken against Kyiv’s NATO and EU accession. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has visited Russia at least five times since the onset of the full-scale war. He also visited Belarus in June in violation of EU sanctions.
- Two sources in Budapest said that Orban intends to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv. The visit marks the first time Orban has traveled to neighboring Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
- The visit comes as Hungary takes over the European Union's rotating presidency of the EU Council. The appointment has sparked controversy, with some European officials calling on European Council President Charles Michel to suspend Hungary's presidency.
- Budapest has repeatedly accused Kyiv of discriminating against the Hungarian ethnic minority concentrated in southwestern Ukraine, an accusation that the Ukrainian leadership denies. "It was a precondition for the meeting that the issue of nationality rights was resolved," the source said. "In recent weeks, an agreement has been reached. They will be able to announce this as a success."
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